Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 189.951861 225.899022 268.874235 324.657251 396.067019 485.692162 6.087603e+02
2025-09-21 147.796601 190.922526 248.458479 332.979676 457.823600 642.101658 9.484969e+02
2025-09-28 120.521164 164.734260 228.417282 330.819698 499.657250 784.102057 1.343592e+03
2025-10-05 109.079569 156.651430 230.014522 358.261207 593.369320 1046.462323 2.117296e+03
2025-10-12 99.555339 148.889560 229.425442 380.705204 685.664322 1352.767579 3.252626e+03
2025-10-19 91.134845 140.993534 226.405750 397.212344 772.337722 1697.545123 4.885344e+03
2025-10-26 83.334657 132.632409 220.601399 406.334281 846.746765 2062.136980 7.138796e+03
2025-11-02 76.099363 124.033360 212.580953 408.530964 906.005420 2429.886590 1.015065e+04
2025-11-09 68.804911 114.258552 200.556622 398.895487 931.622623 2716.146131 1.351923e+04
2025-11-16 62.635762 105.750173 189.633707 389.147519 953.705614 3013.838167 1.798842e+04
2025-11-23 57.277098 98.121451 179.327767 378.506195 969.636504 3308.360311 2.377617e+04
2025-11-30 56.047984 98.294504 185.293769 409.791389 1132.040728 4428.238389 4.596893e+04
2025-12-07 52.555664 93.722270 180.665323 413.499392 1209.378850 5275.195044 7.645478e+04
2025-12-14 50.064406 90.905057 179.562687 426.931206 1332.640477 6623.382671 1.521723e+05
2025-12-21 46.852412 86.216905 173.438630 424.470628 1393.834509 7707.379071 2.749923e+05
2025-12-28 46.199425 86.874625 180.064948 462.447687 1656.534011 11126.023786 1.099538e+06
2026-01-04 45.122165 86.467252 184.025239 493.645285 1918.260502 15681.452009 7.199910e+06
2026-01-11 43.692714 85.099290 185.330118 516.686615 2163.083640 21464.644648 1.744285e+08
2026-01-18 41.932779 82.778971 183.784405 529.456276 2365.925057 28167.266967 NaN
2026-01-25 39.952191 79.740868 179.868694 532.535533 2516.094080 35363.961350 NaN
2026-02-01 37.562535 75.515686 172.135916 519.043207 2547.316074 40334.952551 NaN
2026-02-08 35.377186 71.596734 164.792661 505.424888 2571.110842 45786.575437 NaN
2026-02-15 33.340174 67.869773 157.557151 490.595375 2577.710497 51255.453083 NaN